5-31-2013: Some are predicting more commercial real estate foreclosures. Apparently, every 5-10 years, banks evaluate commercial loans and can ask for them to be paid off. Cash reserves of many small businesses have fallen and placed them in a short squeeze. Exposed loans in 2013: $263 Billion! Source: WSJ, April 29, 2013, PR3
2-8-2011: Now the news seems rosy about Commercial Real Estate according to this article – but it seem the rosiness is based on buying foreclosed/depressed sale of commercial properties and the specific market of these properties so my conclusion is still…it all depends on which end of the market you sit whether things are good or bad – http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-04/u-s-commercial-property-recovery-spares-economy.html
2-7-2011: WSJ, A2 – Office space vacancy rate is about 18%, delinquency rate of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) is over 9%, and some think rental and occupancy rates will struggle along in the next 4 years. Not all gloom news – some investors are bidding up property values due to good deals and low interest rates but the US Government is encouraging banks to modify existing loans as alternatives to foreclosures to help retard the fall of property values.
Green Street Advisors – Said Commercial Real Estate hit bottom in 2009 and is rising. They track 47 REITS with $400 billion of assets.
Moody’s Investors Service – Said commercial real estate hasn’t hit bottom yet. They track closed sales of at least $2.5 million.
Source: WSJ 10-13-2010, C11
S&P Case Shiller home price index – 3 month average of home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas.
Federal Housing Finance Agency index which covers sales and refinancings of conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac (which omits jumbo and subprime loans).
Source: WSJ 10-27-2010, A6
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