I’ll attempt to collect real estate market predictions from “experts” around the country.
My accurate prediction: Some predictions will be right – some wrong – and some vaguely true.
My real prediction: Two forces will continue to apply downward pressure on home prices:
(a) the 4-10 million current homeowners who are behind on their mortgages or severely underwater, and their subsequent foreclosures;
(b) the eventual future increase in interest rates (since they are artificially suppressed now) will need to be compensated by lower home prices.
10-23-12: When everyone is cheering about lower September 2012 foreclosures, watch the other hand for a rise in loan delinquencies before you get “too” happy. Source: http://www.dsnews.com/articles/lps-delinquency-rate-suddenly-spikes-in-september-2012-10-22
5-19-2012: It all depends on who makes a stronger argument…will market improve or continue to fall? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304299304577348083297932466.html
5-4-2012: 2012 – Higher interest rates, more investors, and people who have been on the sidelines will start buying homes. Source: http://www.homefinder.com/news/real-estate/2012/05/03/expected-trends-for-the-spring-housing-market/
4-19-2012: Yahoo article reports possible positive news. http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/report-signals-start-of-broad-based-housing-recovery.html
4-11-2012: Good summary of current real estate market conditions. Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57389664/q-a-what-you-need-to-know-about-real-estate-now/
4-10-2012: Diane Olick at Cnbc has a “REALITY” check on REALTY future and also wonders where optomism is when millions of distressed homeowners remain? Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/46995666?__source=realestate|news|&par=realestate
4-10-2012: Fannie Mae now is pushing you to buy a house – says time is ticking on low home prices – Can they be right? Or will there be 4 million more foreclosures hit the market just in time to drive prices down again? Source: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/04092012_fanniemae_housing_survey.asp
4-9-2012: 11 signs of real estate recovery – is this hype, limited facts, a short or long term boost? Be careful that you don’t misread and get hyped…remember Japan’s roller coaster recovery. Source: http://www.pe.com/business/business-insider-headlines/20120328-real-estate-consumers-more-optimistic-about-homeownership.ece
3-25-2012: Time to start buying houses? And the hype starts all over again. The answer is = it all depends on your goals as well as your buy and hold time horizon. Maybe if you buy long term, but not if you plan to relocate anytime soon. Source: http://blog.equifax.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-more-foreclosures-on-the-market/
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